Optimistic Macro Sentiment Drives Iron Ore Prices to Hold Up Well [SMM Brief Comment]

Today, the Dalian iron ore futures opened lower but closed higher. The most-traded I2601 contract finally closed at 790.5, up 0.96% from the pre-holiday price. Traders sold goods according to market conditions; steel mills mainly adopted a cautious wait-and-see attitude, with fewer inquiries in the market. The trading atmosphere was sluggish. In Shandong, the mainstream transaction prices for old PB fines were around 780-785 yuan/mt, up 5-10 yuan/mt from the pre-holiday price; in Tangshan, the transaction prices for PB fines were 790-795 yuan/mt, up 5-10 yuan/mt from the pre-holiday price.

According to the SMM survey, this week, the operating rate of 242 blast furnaces at steel mills tracked by SMM was 87.29%, down 0.04 percentage points MoM. The daily average hot metal production of sample steel mills was 2.4213 million mt, down 1,400 mt MoM. After the holiday, due to air quality control measures in Tangshan, local sintering machine production restrictions have been further tightened, and road transportation has also been restricted. This may lead to some steel mills' blast furnaces being idled or shut down for 1-2 weeks, resulting in a slight decline in hot metal production. Considering the restocking demand after the holiday. Additionally, expectations for US Fed interest rate cuts have increased, leading to an optimistic macro sentiment. In the short term, ore prices are expected to hold up well.